![]() His sleeping cycle has undoubtedly been terrible the last few days, and even if you don’t take that into account he has spent nine hours and nine minutes on the court in the last two rounds. That was against Jannik Sinner, whom Alcaraz finally overcame at 2:50 am. The Spaniard is coming off back-to-back five-setters, both of which ended after 2:00 am and the second of which lasted five hours and 15 minutes. 4 - is obviously the better player with more experience at the business end of big tournaments (even though he is only 19!). All things being equal, Alcaraz - ranked No. ![]() The 24-year-old American has a great chance to win the match outright. Tiafoe should also have no trouble taking a set, so I’m throwing that into the above parlay and also going even bigger. Frances Tiafoe ML over Carlos Alcaraz (+170) If we only need one set, though, we are likely in good shape. I think Ruud has an advantage in a long match. The fact that he has played 10 sets in the last two rounds is another reason why I’m not going all in on Khachanov. Open semifinalist Pablo Carreno Busta and Wimbledon runner-up Nick Kyrgios. ![]() 31 is coming off back-to-back wins over two-time U.S. Alas, he is not oddsmakers are well aware of how well he is playing. Still, I was hoping the Russian would be an even bigger underdog. It would not be shocking at all to see Khachanov pull off an outright upset, so I would not be opposed to sprinkling some on the +3.5 game spread or even on the +170 money line. That wouldn’t be a safe bet if this was being played on clay (Ruud’s speciality), but on a relatively fast hard court it should be a different story. I don’t love any market for Friday’s first semifinal between Ruud and Khachanov, but you can at least feel good about Khachanov taking a set. Parlay: Karen Khachanov +2.5 sets over Casper Ruud and Frances Tiafoe +2.5 sets over Carlos Alcaraz (-137)
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